Men's college basketball bubble winners and losers: TCU gets big win, Wake Forest falls short

If TCU sees its name in the field on Selection Sunday, it might have to thank Jameer Nelson Jr. for getting him there.

With a projected nine teams in the men's NCAA tournament in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology prediction and four teams in the initial top 16 seed reveal, the Big 12 has become a dogfight of a conference where every win is a resume booster. But of those projected teams, the Horned Frogs entered Saturday as one of those squads still needing to prove they are worthy of a bid, and in such a deep conference, it's imperative to get wins against the lower half of the Big 12, like on the road against 10th place Kansas State.

After a mediocre first half, the Horned Frogs woke up and took a 10-point lead with seven minutes to go and looked fine with a five-point lead with 30 seconds left.

Then came a bad foul on a 3-point shot, with all free throws going in, to keep Kansas State alive. After both teams traded a pair of free throws, a bad turnover on the inbound led to the Wildcats tying the game up with 15 seconds left, with the game appearing to head to overtime and the Horned Frogs having a devastating collapse in Manhattan.

But the son of the Saint Joseph’s legend stepped up on what was looking like a disorganized final play. With a defender in his face, Nelson knocked down a 3-point shot to give TCU the lead with one second left, and the full court heave by Kansas State was unsuccessful, giving TCU a much needed victory.

It wasn’t a Quad 1 win, but it was necessary for the Horned Frogs to pick up a victory when three of its next four games (Texas Tech, Baylor and BYU) are Quad 1 games, meaning TCU will enters its toughest stretch of the season while holding onto a top four spot in the Big 12, which would get them into an automatic spot in the conference tournament quarterfinals. That is why the Horned Frogs top the biggest winners and losers on the bubble this Saturday.

WINNERS

Florida

Don’t look now, but Florida is getting hot, going on the road to beat Georgia for its seventh win in its last eight while picking up a Quad 2 victory. The Bulldogs ambushed Florida offensively in the first half, leading by as much as 11 in the first frame, but the Gators defense clamped down in the second half to hold Georgia to shooting 37% in the final 20 minutes. The backcourt duo of Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin is also taking this team to success, averaging a combined 34.4 points per game in the last eight contests.

The Gators have turned around a 1-3 start in conference play with wins at Kentucky and a blowout win at home against Auburn in recent weeks, and while not pretty, the best thing they can say about its seven losses this season is they all came against Quad 1 opponents. Florida will have a chance to boost its resume and possibly get toward a 7-seed projection on the road against Alabama next week.

Mississippi's SEC teams

The Magnolia State's SEC schools should keep their current spots in the projected field after securing wins against the cellar dwellers of the conference.

Chris Jans would much rather his team make the field of 64 than play in the First Four like last season, and a win against Arkansas has given Mississippi State three wins in-a-row after starting SEC play 3-6, putting them in the middle of the pack. North of Starkville, Mississippi used a second-half comeback against Missouri to end a three-game losing skid that took the Rebels out of the top of SEC.

Next for both teams is the second-meeting of the season between the two. Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in the first matchup at home, and Wednesday's game between the in-state rivals could be a decider in March of who makes the tournament and who doesn't.

Cincinnati

The first season in the Big 12 hasn’t been all too kind to Cincinnati, but the Bearcats are staying in the NCAA Tournament picture after picking up a road victory at UCF. Cincinnati looked like it would pull away from the Knights with a double-digit lead in the second half, but UCF was able to claw back to tie it late. But Cincinnati was able to get a clutch layup from Simas Lukosius off a turnover to give the team the lead for good.

It’s hard to argue for a team with a losing conference record to make the tournament, especially when they entered Saturday with losses in three of their last four games, but a victory against UCF gives Cincinnati its third Quad 1 win, all while possessing a NET ranking of 38, just one spot above fellow bubble team TCU, who it will face next Saturday. The Bearcats certainly have work to do to get out of the first four out picture, but Saturday’s win keeps them in the hunt.

Pittsburgh

There are few squads playing as good as Pittsburgh right now, who won its fifth-straight game in 27-point win over Louisville, fueled by Blake Hinson dropping an outstanding 41 points with nine made 3-pointers.

It's been quite the turnaround for a team that was just 10-7 and 1-5 in the ACC a few weeks ago, with the Panthers finding themselves now in fourth place in the conference. The shaky start to the season is why Pittsburgh doesn't have a projected tournament spot at the moment — sitting in the next four out — but if the Panthers continue to perform at the level they are at right now, it would be tough to deny them a bid. They could also pick up another Quad 1 win next week on the road against another ACC bubble team in Wake Forest.

Mountain West at-large hopefuls

If the Mountain West can really pull having six teams make it to the big dance, it's going to need consistency from the at-large contenders in the conference. Boise State was able to do it, while Colorado State had the best win of the day in the conference.

Colorado State, current a 9-seed in the projected bracket, could be moving up a spot after a dominant 20-point win over conference-leading Utah State, giving the Rams their fourth Quad 1 win of the season while keeping them in the hunt of the conference title. On the other hand, Boise State handled business against Fresno State in a 90-66 win, a needed victory for a team that is currently one of the last four squads to make the tournament.

Colorado

No team needed a win more than Colorado on Saturday, which entered the day losers in four of its last five and was coming off a loss against a resurgent UCLA squad. Against a bad Southern California team, things looked horrible when the Buffaloes were down by 16 with around 10 minutes left in the game, but was able to storm back to force overtime in the final seconds of regulation. A second overtime was needed, but Colorado was able to keep the Trojans from tying the game in the final second for a three-point victory, only the second road victory of the season.

Recent struggles have pushed Colorado to the next four out of the projected field, so it was going to be an uphill climb to get a spot back, but the Buffaloes couldn't afford going winless in a trip to the Los Angeles schools. The team can only hope the win gives them momentum into what will be a big game next Saturday when Colorado host a fellow bubble team in Utah.

LOSERS

Texas, Texas A&M

The soon-to-be SEC rivals are both on the path to make the tournament, but games against highly ranked opponents on the road would’ve given a big boost to Texas and Texas A&M should they have won, or at least make it a compelling game.

But neither team came close, with Texas losing by 21-points to Houston while Texas A&M giving up 100 in a 25-point loss to Alabama.

In terms of staying in the NCAA tournament picture, Texas is fine at the moment, but it could be dropping seeds if it doesn’t get out of the bottom half of the Big 12. It also doesn’t help that its last three road games of the regular season come against Quad 1 opponents, putting the Longhorns in dangerous territory if they can’t pick up another impressive win. 

It’s been a week to forget for the Aggies after they had a highly questionable loss to Vanderbilt on Tuesday, their third Quad 3 loss this season. The Aggies were big risers after knocking off Tennessee last week, but things will need to be picked up quickly if Texas A&M wants to avoid falling to a double-digit seed spot.

Wake Forest

One of the first four out teams, Wake Forest could have jumped into one of the last four spots with its first Quad 1 win against Virginia.

Instead, the Demon Deacons are now 0-5 against Quad 1 teams.

Wake Forest entered the day one of 49 Division I teams averaging at least 80 points a game, but fell victim to Virginia’s defensive prowess, shooting just 35% on the day while scoring a season-low 47 points. Despite the struggle, Wake Forest hung around and had several opportunities to take a late lead, but they couldn’t capitalize despite the Cavaliers shooting an abysmal 1-for-11 from the free throw line. 

Saturday was a wasted opportunity for Wake Forest to bump its resume, but not all hope should be lost; it’ll have chances to strengthen it in what will be a big upcoming week for the Demon Deacons: They host surging Pittsburgh on Tuesday and Duke on Saturday in what is pretty much turning into must-win games.

Butler

After defeating Creighton on the road two weeks ago for a fourth-straight win, Butler looked primed to solidify a tournament spot in the final month of the regular season.

The first half against the Bluejays at home on Saturday was promising with the Bulldogs up by one point, but the second half was dismal. Creighton’s offense ramped up while Butler went cold, including 1-for-11 behind the arc after making five 3-pointers in the first half. By the end, Butler suffered a 22-point loss at home.

It’s been a tough couple of weeks for the Bulldogs, losing three of their last four, with all the loses coming to teams ranked in the top 16 of the USA TODAY Sports coaches poll. At 16-10, Butler is in tournament contention because of its four Quad 1 wins, and it has two more games against Quad 1 opponents in what is an easier end of regular-season schedule in theory, but the Bulldogs can’t afford any slip ups to get pushed back toward a first four team out spot.